So Michael Howard is going to lead the Tories. And it seems almost certain that they will unite behind him immediately, putting aside any awkward differences because they know that the next few months are going to see a mix of: ongoing troubles in Iraq, difficulties over Ireland, public service militancy, and a growing deficit - all culminating in a potentially damning report from the Hutton Inquiry. 'What's going to happen' is now a very entertaining pub game. I offer three scenarios.
Scenario 1: the Tory wet dream
Tories under Howard turn into a fit, lean election fighting machine in the next couple of months. Blair becomes increasingly beleagured by the start of next year, then gets whalloped by the Hutton Inquiry. He stays on, becoming ever less popular and alienated from his party as a result of the consequences of Iraq, plans for public services et al. . He refuses to leave before the general election, and Tories rise to power on promises to hold a referendum on Europe; a crackdown on asylum; being tough on crime but gentle on pensions, and, somehow, a plan to reverse five Labour tax increases. Gordon Brown becomes leader of the Labour party for 10 years of opposition.
Scenario 2: the Brown wet dream
Starts the same way as above, only early next year: knocked by Hutton and worries over his health, Tony Blair decides to step down to spend more time with Bill Clinton. Gordon Brown moves to number 10, with a plan for massive investment (again) in public services, a u-turn on tuition fees, a promise to hand British responsibilities in Iraq over to the UN and very glamorous non-job for John Prescott. The labour party rally. The Tories make some advances in the general election but not enough to feel 100% comfortable with Michael Howard.....cracks start to show. David Davies starts looking for campaign office space.
Scenario 3: The Blair fantasy
On the eve of the announcement of the Hutton Inqury's findings:The entire shadow cabinet (including Theresa May) is caught whooping it up in the back room of Spearmint Rhino. Despite securing the Daily Star's support, they are all forced to resign. IDS is re-elected as leader.


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